RAYDOR Market Intelligence · Market report
Dubai Property Market — August 2026
- Data period
- July 2026 (monthly), Q2 2026 (quarterly)
- Published
- 25 August 2026
- Last updated
- 25 August 2026
- Published by
- RAYDOR editorial team
Quick answer
Dubai's residential market in mid-2026 is a market where activity has fallen sharply from its 2025 peak while prices have not. CBRE recorded fewer than 37,000 residential transactions in Q2 2026, down 29% year-on-year, and transaction value of AED 88 billion against roughly AED 154 billion a year earlier — yet home sale prices were still 1.9% higher year-on-year. Monthly trackers working from Dubai Land Department data report that July 2026 was modestly up on June on both count and value, which points to stabilisation after the second-quarter drop rather than a return to 2025 conditions. Rents, unlike prices, are falling: CBRE puts average residential rents down 6.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Key numbers
DataEach figure is reproduced from the cited publisher for the stated period and metric definition. RAYDOR does not re-estimate or re-base the underlying data.
Residential transactions
Fewer than 37,000
Down 29% year-on-year, from more than 51,000 in Q2 2025
- Metric:
- Residential sales transactions recorded in the quarter
- Period:
- Q2 2026
Transaction value
AED 88 billion
Against approximately AED 154 billion in Q2 2025
- Metric:
- Total residential transaction value in the quarter
- Period:
- Q2 2026
Home sale prices
+1.9%
Prices above 2025 levels despite the fall in transaction volume
- Metric:
- Year-on-year change in home sale prices
- Period:
- Q2 2026
Average residential rents
-6.2%
Down 2.6% year-on-year
- Metric:
- Quarter-on-quarter change in average residential rents
- Period:
- Q2 2026
First-half sales
79,698 sales, AED 227.1 billion
- Metric:
- Recorded sales transactions and value, Dubai Land Department data
- Period:
- H1 2026
2026 handover pipeline
96,585 homes
- Metric:
- Homes scheduled for handover during 2026, of which 82.9% are already sold
- Period:
- Full-year 2026 schedule, published August 2026
Completions delivered
More than 13,200 units
- Metric:
- Residential units delivered in the quarter
- Period:
- Q2 2026
What changed?
July was up on June, on every tracker we checked — but the size of the increase is disputed
TradeArabia, citing Dubai Land Department data, reported residential sales up 2% month-on-month in July 2026 with luxury transactions up 22%. Projectory, also working from DLD data, reported home sales up 2.0% by count and 0.6% by value. Other trackers reported roughly 13,900 transactions worth about AED 34.9 billion. These figures are not comparable to each other because they count different things — all registered transactions versus residential-only versus home sales — so we report the direction (modestly up on June) and not a single headline number.
Ready and secondary stock took share back from off-plan
Projectory reported off-plan registrations down 3.6% month-on-month in July while ready-home sales rose 21.5%, taking off-plan's share of home sales from 77.8% in June to 73.6% in July. A separate DLD-based analysis put off-plan at 70% of residential-use sales by count and 53.2% by value for the same month. Off-plan remains the dominant channel on either basis; what changed is the direction.
The quarterly picture is a volume correction, not a price correction
CBRE attributed the Q2 slowdown to softer demand, fewer new launches and increased supply. AGBI described the market as settling at 'true value' with pricing broadly resilient and completed homes at a five-year high. Bloomberg, reporting in June, described sellers holding the line on prices while transaction value fell steeply, in the context of regional conflict.
Rents turned before prices did
CBRE recorded average residential rents down 6.2% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year in Q2 2026, while sale prices were still up 1.9% year-on-year. Cushman & Wakefield Core's mid-year update describes a more balanced phase in which buyers and tenants have gained negotiating ground.
What the data does and does not show
What the data does show
- · Transaction volume and value in Q2 2026 were materially below Q2 2025 on CBRE's consistent quarterly basis.
- · Sale prices as measured in Q2 2026 were still above their year-earlier level.
- · Average residential rents fell both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in Q2 2026.
- · Monthly DLD-derived trackers agree that July 2026 was higher than June 2026 on transaction count and value.
- · Off-plan remained the majority of home sales in July 2026, while ready and secondary activity increased month-on-month.
- · A very large 2026 handover pipeline exists, and the large majority of those units are already sold.
What the data does not show
- · It does not show a July 2026 versus July 2025 comparison. No source we could verify published one, so we make no year-on-year claim for the month.
- · It does not show that the market has recovered. A month-on-month increase after a weak quarter is not a year-on-year recovery.
- · It does not show what prices did in any single area, tower or project. City-level indices routinely conceal wide divergence between communities and between off-plan and ready stock.
- · It does not separate apartment from villa price movement for July 2026. The DLD publishes that split through an interactive tool we could not retrieve a citable current reading from, so we do not state one.
- · It does not show developer discounting, incentives or payment-plan generosity, none of which appear in registered transaction prices.
- · It does not tell you the rental yield you would achieve on a specific unit, because index rents and achieved rents differ.
What this may mean for investors
RAYDOR interpretationThe most useful way to read mid-2026 Dubai is that the buyer pool thinned faster than sellers adjusted. Volume and value fell hard year-on-year while prices did not, which is the signature of a market where sellers can afford to wait — either because they are not leveraged or because they are developers with a launch pipeline rather than distressed owners.
For a buyer, a market with fewer competing buyers and stable asking prices is not the same as a cheap market, but it is a slower one. Time to inspect, compare and negotiate is the practical benefit, not a discount you should assume in advance.
The falling rents alongside rising sale prices matter more than either figure alone: if that gap persists, gross yields compress. Anyone underwriting a purchase on a yield assumption taken from 2024 or 2025 marketing material should re-derive it from current achievable rent in the specific building, not from a city average.
The 2026 handover pipeline is the single most important thing to watch. A large volume of completions arriving into a market with softening rents is the mechanism by which rental softness would spread; the fact that most of those units are already sold changes who bears that risk, not whether it exists.
This section is RAYDOR’s reading of the sourced data above. It is not a forecast, a valuation or a recommendation, and observed movement in one metric does not establish a cause.
Uncertainty and limitations
Uncertainty & limitations- Monthly Dubai transaction counts differ materially between trackers because of differing definitions. Any single monthly headline number should be treated as approximate.
- We could not access a primary Dubai Land Department publication for July 2026; the monthly figures cited here are secondary reports attributed to DLD data.
- Bloomberg linked the mid-2026 cooling in part to regional conflict. Geopolitically driven demand shifts can reverse faster than supply-driven ones, in either direction.
- Quarterly index readings are revised. Comparisons made today may not match the same publisher's figures in a later release.
- Price indices reflect registered sale prices. They do not capture incentives, fee absorption or extended payment plans, all of which change the real cost of an off-plan purchase.
What RAYDOR is watching
- · Whether the month-on-month improvement seen in July 2026 continues into the following months, or proves to be a single-month effect.
- · Q3 2026 quarterly reviews from CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield Core, which are the first consistent year-on-year readings after the Q2 drop.
- · Whether the shift back towards ready and secondary stock continues to take share from off-plan.
- · Whether rents stabilise or continue to fall as 2026 completions are handed over.
- · Whether new launch volume recovers, since CBRE cited fewer launches as part of the Q2 slowdown.
Common questions
- Are Dubai property prices falling in 2026?
- Not on the measure we can verify. CBRE recorded home sale prices 1.9% higher year-on-year in Q2 2026. What fell sharply was the number and value of transactions, and separately, average residential rents, which CBRE put down 6.2% quarter-on-quarter.
- How many properties sold in Dubai in July 2026?
- Trackers disagree, because they count different things. Figures reported from Dubai Land Department data for July 2026 range from about 12,600 home sales to about 13,900 total transactions. All of them show July higher than June. We do not publish a single headline count for the month because the bases are not comparable.
- Is off-plan still the majority of Dubai sales?
- Yes, on both DLD-derived readings we found for July 2026 — either 70% of residential-use sales by count or 73.6% of home sales. Both sources show that share falling month-on-month as ready and secondary activity picked up.
Sources & methodology
RAYDOR does not produce its own transaction data. Every figure on this page is reproduced from the named publisher for the stated period and metric definition, and is not re-based, re-weighted or annualised by us. Where publishers disagree, we show the disagreement rather than choosing the more attractive number. Dubai Land Department figures are frequently restated by different trackers on different bases — all registered transactions, residential-only sales, or home sales excluding certain instrument types — so counts from two sources for the same month are often not comparable. Quarterly figures from CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield are our preferred basis for year-on-year comparison because their methodology is published and consistent across quarters. Monthly figures are treated as directional only.
- CBRE Middle East — UAE Real Estate Market Review, Q2 2026 (Q2 2026) View source
- Projectory Research (Dubai Land Department data) — Dubai Property Market H1 2026 — DLD data report (H1 2026) View source
- Projectory Research (Dubai Land Department data) — Dubai property market report, July 2026 (DLD home sales) (July 2026) View source
- TradeArabia (citing Dubai Land Department data) — Dubai residential sales rise 2% in July; luxury transactions climb 22% (July 2026) View source
- fäm Properties / DXBinteract via Gulf News — Dubai has 96,585 homes entering the market in 2026; 83% already sold (Published 21 August 2026) View source
- Cushman & Wakefield Core — Dubai property market enters more balanced phase (Published 17 August 2026) View source
- AGBI — Dubai property sales tumble but market settling at 'true value' (Published 21 July 2026) View source
- Cushman & Wakefield Core — MARKETBEAT Residential Q2 2026 — Dubai (Q2 2026) View source
RAYDOR Market Intelligence is independent research produced from public and institutional sources. It is not investment, legal or tax advice, and it is not a forecast. Figures are reproduced as published for the stated period and metric definition and may be revised by their publisher after release.
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